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The committee concluded that strong growth in both real GDP and real GDI in the fourth quarter of 2009 ruled out the possibility that the trough occurred later than the third quarter.

The committee designated June as the month of the trough based on several monthly indicators.

The trough marks the end of the declining phase and the start of the rising phase of the business cycle.

Economic activity is typically below normal in the early stages of an expansion, and it sometimes remains so well into the expansion.

The committee places less emphasis on monthly data series for industrial production and manufacturing-trade sales, because these refer to particular sectors of the economy.

Last modified 26-Nov-2017 14:29